Investment Thesis
AEMETIS is technically insolvent with -$321.1M stockholders' equity and faces an acute liquidity crisis (0.09x current ratio) with only $4.8M cash against $62M long-term debt. The company is burning cash (-$10.6M operating CF, -$17.1M free CF) while revenue collapsed 26% YoY and net margins deteriorated to -39.8%, indicating fundamental operational distress without near-term recovery visibility.
Strengths
- Maintained asset base of $270.3M despite distress, providing potential restructuring value
- Low relative liabilities ($21.6M) compared to assets, though equity is negative
- Industrial Organic Chemicals sector operates in essential industries with long-term demand
Risks
- Negative stockholders' equity of -$321.1M indicates technical insolvency and acute solvency risk
- Critical liquidity crisis: 0.09x current ratio with $4.8M cash insufficient to cover near-term obligations and negative operating cash burn
- Deteriorating operations: 26% revenue decline YoY, negative operating margins (-11.6%), and inability to service debt (interest coverage -0.4x)
- Sustained negative free cash flow (-$31.3% FCF margin) with capital expenditures ongoing despite burn rate
Key Metrics to Watch
- Cash balance and monthly burn rate - critical for bankruptcy timeline
- Debt covenant compliance and refinancing access - near-term solvency trigger
- Revenue stabilization and gross margin recovery - operational viability
- Operating cash flow return to positive - demonstrates sustainable operations
Financial Metrics
Revenue
54.6M
Net Income
-21.7M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.33
Free Cash Flow
-17.1M
Total Assets
270.3M
Cash
4.8M
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
5.0%
Operating Margin
-11.6%
Net Margin
-39.8%
ROE
N/A
ROA
-8.0%
FCF Margin
-31.3%
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Current Ratio
0.09x
Quick Ratio
0.06x
Debt/Equity
N/A
Debt/Assets
8.0%
Interest Coverage
-0.44x
Long-term Debt
62.1M
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings.
It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice.
All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings.
Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR |
Analysis Date: 2026-05-09T09:27:48.281361 |
Data as of: 2026-03-31 |
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