Investment Thesis
Despite explosive 1006.8% YoY revenue growth, Green Plains exhibits severe fundamental deterioration: negative operating cash flow of -39.5M alongside positive net income suggests poor earnings quality, diluted EPS declined 39.5% YoY indicating severe margin compression or share dilution, and abysmal ROE of 4.2% reveals value destruction. The divergence between accounting profits and cash generation is unsustainable.
Strengths
- Exceptional revenue growth of 1006.8% YoY demonstrates significant business expansion
- Positive net income of 32.9M with 7.4% net margin shows current profitability
- Conservative leverage at 0.50x debt-to-equity ratio with strong 5.8x interest coverage
Risks
- Critical negative operating cash flow of -39.5M despite positive net income indicates severe earnings quality deterioration and working capital stress
- Diluted EPS declined 39.5% YoY while revenue surged 1006%, suggesting extreme margin compression or massive share dilution eroding shareholder value
- Anemic returns with 4.2% ROE and 2.1% ROA demonstrate poor capital efficiency and value destruction from large asset base
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating cash flow trend and working capital components to verify sustainability of reported earnings
- Diluted share count changes and EPS trajectory to quantify shareholder dilution
- Cash depletion rate relative to negative free cash flow of -45.9M and adequacy of 95.7M cash position
Financial Metrics
Revenue
445.8M
Net Income
32.9M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.42
Free Cash Flow
-45.9M
Total Assets
1.6B
Cash
95.7M
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
19.7%
Operating Margin
10.0%
Net Margin
7.4%
ROE
4.2%
ROA
2.1%
FCF Margin
-10.3%
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Current Ratio
1.71x
Quick Ratio
1.63x
Debt/Equity
0.50x
Debt/Assets
50.1%
Interest Coverage
5.75x
Long-term Debt
388.9M
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings.
It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice.
All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings.
Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR |
Analysis Date: 2026-05-09T10:54:44.361909 |
Data as of: 2026-03-31 |
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