Investment Thesis
Olin Corp is in severe financial distress with negative profitability across all metrics, negative free cash flow of -$92.3M, and unsustainable leverage of 1.73x debt-to-equity. The company cannot service its $3.0B debt burden from operations (interest coverage of -1.8x) and is burning cash with deteriorating trends, creating material risk of covenant violations or restructuring.
Strengths
- Revenue growing 3.7% YoY despite profitability challenges
- Maintains $192.2M in cash reserves providing near-term liquidity buffer
- Large asset base of $7.4B provides potential collateral or asset sale optionality
Risks
- Negative net income of -$83.0M with gross margin of only 4.8% indicates fundamental business profitability crisis
- Negative free cash flow of -$92.3M with negative operating cash flow unsustainable without external financing
- High leverage (1.73x debt/equity, $3.0B LT debt) with negative interest coverage (-1.8x) creates debt service distress risk
- Quick ratio of 0.82x below 1.0 indicates liquidity stress and potential working capital constraints
- Operating margins of -4.9% and deteriorating net income trends suggest structural rather than cyclical challenges
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating cash flow trend and timeline to positive FCF
- Interest coverage ratio and debt covenant compliance status
- Gross margin recovery with pricing power or cost structure improvements
- Quarterly cash burn rate and debt refinancing needs
Financial Metrics
Revenue
1.6B
Net Income
-83.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.73
Free Cash Flow
-92.3M
Total Assets
7.4B
Cash
192.2M
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
4.8%
Operating Margin
-4.9%
Net Margin
-5.2%
ROE
-4.8%
ROA
-1.1%
FCF Margin
-5.8%
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Current Ratio
1.36x
Quick Ratio
0.82x
Debt/Equity
1.73x
Debt/Assets
76.4%
Interest Coverage
-1.81x
Long-term Debt
3.0B
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings.
It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice.
All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings.
Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR |
Analysis Date: 2026-05-09T12:14:56.007129 |
Data as of: 2026-03-31 |
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