Investment Thesis
Ultragenyx faces critical solvency concerns with negative stockholders equity of -$236M and annual free cash flow of -$198M, implying ~11 months of cash runway at current burn rates. Despite 20.2% YoY revenue growth, the company's operating margin of -124% demonstrates severe unprofitability, suggesting underlying business model challenges rather than early-stage development delays.
Strengths
- Revenue growing 20.2% YoY demonstrates market demand and product traction
- Cash position of $175M provides near-term operational continuity
- Current ratio of 2.02x indicates ability to cover short-term liabilities
- Significant insider trading activity (20 Form 4 filings) in past 90 days
Risks
- Negative stockholders equity of -$236M indicates technical insolvency; liabilities exceed assets by $200M+
- Cash burn of $198M annually creates existential runway of approximately 11 months without financing
- Operating losses of $169M on $136M revenue reveal inability to monetize revenue base or control costs
- Company will require dilutive capital raise; likely to impair existing shareholder value materially
Key Metrics to Watch
- Monthly cash burn trend and operating cash flow - determines survival timeline
- Revenue per dollar of operating expense - indicator of path to profitability
- Capital raise announcements and terms - will signal shareholder dilution magnitude
- Gross margin evolution on product revenue - reveals pricing power and unit economics
Financial Metrics
Revenue
136.0M
Net Income
-185.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$-1.84
Free Cash Flow
-198.0M
Total Assets
1.3B
Cash
175.0M
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
N/A
Operating Margin
-124.3%
Net Margin
-136.0%
ROE
N/A
ROA
-14.3%
FCF Margin
-145.6%
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Current Ratio
2.02x
Quick Ratio
1.85x
Debt/Equity
N/A
Debt/Assets
117.7%
Interest Coverage
-531.45x
Long-term Debt
N/A
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings.
It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice.
All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings.
Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR |
Analysis Date: 2026-05-07T10:21:19.026159 |
Data as of: 2026-03-31 |
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