TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc.

NYSE Tobacco Products DE CIK: 0001290677
AI RATING
SELL
82% Confidence

Investment Thesis

Despite robust 28.4% revenue growth, net income declined 14.7% YoY signaling operational deterioration. Critical interest coverage of 0.8x combined with negative operating cash flow of -$22.3M makes debt service unsustainable without asset sales or external financing. Abysmal capital returns (ROE 3%, ROA 1.5%) suggest structural profitability challenges.

Strengths

  • + Strong revenue growth of 28.4% year-over-year demonstrates top-line expansion
  • + Healthy gross margin of 55.0% provides operational foundation
  • + Exceptional liquidity position with current ratio of 5.87x and cash reserves of $192.4M

Risks

  • ! Critical solvency risk: interest coverage ratio of 0.8x indicates inability to cover interest expenses from operating income
  • ! Negative operating cash flow (-$22.3M) and negative free cash flow (-$27.4M) are fundamentally unsustainable
  • ! Deteriorating profitability: net income declined 14.7% despite revenue growth of 28.4% indicating margin compression
  • ! Severely depressed capital efficiency: ROE of 3.0% and ROA of 1.5% show poor returns on invested capital
  • ! EPS growth of 45.3% driven by share buybacks rather than organic earnings improvement masks underlying weakness

Key Metrics to Watch

Financial Metrics

Revenue
124.3M
Net Income
11.7M
EPS (Diluted)
$3.11
Free Cash Flow
-27.4M
Total Assets
772.1M
Cash
192.4M

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 55.0%
Operating Margin 10.0%
Net Margin 9.4%
ROE 3.0%
ROA 1.5%
FCF Margin -22.0%

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
5.87x
Quick Ratio
4.05x
Debt/Equity
0.76x
Debt/Assets
50.1%
Interest Coverage
0.83x
Long-term Debt
293.9M
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: 2026-05-09T09:10:46.375537 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI