WMG Warner Music Group Corp.

Nasdaq Services-Amusement & Recreation Services DE CIK: 0001319161
AI RATING
HOLD
58% Confidence

Investment Thesis

WMG demonstrates strong free cash flow generation ($519M) and modest revenue growth (+4.4%), but is severely hampered by excessive leverage (6.39x debt-to-equity) and deteriorating profitability, with net income declining 16.1% YoY despite revenue growth. Critical liquidity stress (0.73x current ratio) combined with a thin equity base ($738M on $10.6B assets) creates material refinancing risk that offsets otherwise stable operational cash generation.

Strengths

  • + Strong free cash flow generation ($519M with 14.5% FCF margin)
  • + Positive revenue growth momentum (+4.4% YoY) in entertainment sector
  • + Robust operating margins (15.5%) demonstrating pricing power
  • + Low capital intensity (CapEx only $47M on $3.6B revenue base)

Risks

  • ! Severe financial leverage with 6.39x debt-to-equity ratio and $4.7B long-term debt
  • ! Acute liquidity crisis with current ratio of 0.73x and quick ratio of 0.71x (both below 1.0)
  • ! Profit margin compression with net income declining 16.1% YoY despite flat-to-positive top-line growth
  • ! Razor-thin equity cushion ($738M) vulnerable to operational or market shocks
  • ! Refinancing risk given debt burden and constrained balance sheet flexibility

Key Metrics to Watch

Financial Metrics

Revenue
3.6B
Net Income
359.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.68
Free Cash Flow
519.0M
Total Assets
10.6B
Cash
741.0M

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 15.5%
Net Margin 10.1%
ROE 48.6%
ROA 3.4%
FCF Margin 14.5%

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.73x
Quick Ratio
0.71x
Debt/Equity
6.39x
Debt/Assets
90.8%
Interest Coverage
6.13x
Long-term Debt
4.7B
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: 2026-05-09T13:52:41.183545 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI